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Jurnal Asep Setiawan

Jurnal Asep Setiawan

Category Archives: Global Politics

The Repercussions of Wagner’s Actions Against Putin in Russia

30 Friday Jun 2023

Posted by Setiawan in Global Politics, Hubungan Internasional

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Russia, Vladimir Putin, Wagner

Wagner Group, a Russian private military corporation, has received much attention recently because of its involvement in many wars and possible ties to the Russian government. The Wagner Group’s suspected participation in measures against Russian President Vladimir Putin is one of the most fascinating parts of its activity. The ramifications of Wagner’s actions against Putin in Russia will be examined in this article, with an emphasis on the likely motives for such acts, the influence on Russia’s internal and international dynamics, and the more significant implications for the country’s political environment.

Understanding Wagner’s objectives against Putin is difficult since the nature of the group and its connection with the Russian government is mysterious. However, various ideas about their activities have evolved. Wagner’s actions against Putin might result from internal power struggles within the Russian elite. Putin’s inner circle generally includes powerful players with competing agendas. Wagner’s activities might be motivated by groups aiming to undercut Putin’s authority while consolidating their own.

Another potential cause is a desire for greater political power. If Wagner is linked to elements within the Russian government, their efforts against Putin might be an attempt to change political dynamics and assert control over decision-making. They may be attempting to convey to Putin that they have the potential and inclination to oppose his authority, therefore influencing policy results in their favor by attacking him.

Wagner’s actions against Putin have far-reaching ramifications for Russia’s domestic politics. For starters, they may worsen existing schisms within Russia’s political elite. If Wagner’s actions are motivated by internal power struggles, the administration may face further instability and infighting. This might erode Putin’s grip on the country and open the door for opposing forces to exploit the situation.

Wagner’s actions may further create widespread resentment and anti-government sentiment. If the organization successfully operates against Putin, it may damage the public’s impression of his authority and call into doubt the government’s capacity to preserve order. This might fuel social discontent and political division, further destabilizing the country.

Wagner’s attempts against Putin have far-reaching repercussions for Russia’s foreign affairs, far beyond the domestic sector. If the Wagner Group’s actions are tied to forces within the Russian government, it might indicate a power struggle that could influence Russia’s foreign policy decisions. The ambiguity surrounding Putin’s power and the possible influence of other factions may lead to a more unpredictable and forceful foreign policy, as several factions compete for dominance and seek to shape Russia’s external activities to their advantage.

Furthermore, Wagner’s actions against Putin may impact Russia’s ties with other countries. If conflicting factions acquire power, Russia’s alliances and relationships may evolve as different parties prioritize their interests. This might raise concerns and tensions with traditional allies, as well as have an influence on existing wars or talks in which Russia plays a prominent role.

Wagner Group’s actions against Putin have more significant consequences for Russia’s political environment. They show the complexities of power relations in the country and the possible fragility of Putin’s reign. If different groups are working to undermine Putin’s authority, it calls into doubt the stability and duration of his rule. The rise of alternative power centers among Russia’s elite might result in a more fragmented political environment, with many groups competing for dominance and influence.

Furthermore, the Wagner Group’s actions and the ramifications for Russia’s domestic and international dynamics may have long-term effects on the country’s political system. It may trigger a rethinking of the centralized style of government and talks about the need for reforms to address power imbalances and reduce the possibility of internal power struggles. Such conversations can alter the future trajectory of Russian politics and pave the road for a more inclusive and stable political system.

As Wagner’s actions against Putin develop, various possible scenarios might determine Putin’s influence in Russia in the future. Given the minimal information known regarding Wagner Group and its genuine aims, the current scenario is highly speculative. On the other hand, analyzing the future results might give insights into the potential ways in which Russian politics may evolve.

In this scenario, Putin effectively neutralizes Wagner’s initiatives and consolidates his hold on the Russian political environment. To regain his control, he may use a combination of political maneuvering, elite purges, and boosting support from loyal factions. Putin has proved to be a brilliant tactician in negotiating complicated power relations, and he may be able to utilize the situation to concentrate power further skillfully. This might mean that Putin’s control will continue indefinitely, with Putin keeping a prominent role in Russian politics.

On the other hand, Wagner’s initiatives might exacerbate power rivalries within Russia’s elite, leading to increased fragmentation and instability. Rival groups may step up their efforts to undermine Putin’s authority and seize power, encouraged by their capacity to criticize him. This situation might lead to more political infighting, destabilization, and the possibility of regime upheaval. Depending on the dominant forces within the power battles, the outcome might vary from a weaker Putin administration to a total reconstruction of the political system, perhaps leading to a more democratic or authoritarian state.

The Wagner Group’s activities might potentially spark a controlled transition of power in Russia. Recognizing the difficulties, he confronts; Putin may opt to stage a managed transfer of power to a successor. This situation would need meticulous planning and talks among important players to achieve a seamless transition and avoid widespread instability. The successor might be a loyal friend or a centrist candidate capable of upholding the regime’s essential values while satisfying conflicting groups. A shift like this might allow Russia to reform its political system and solve some of the underlying power inequalities.

Wagner’s actions against Putin may draw notice and interference from other forces. Foreign powers may seek to use domestic power conflicts to further their own agendas, depending on their interests. This might include economic pressure, diplomatic maneuvering, or backing for opposing factions. External action may either worsen existing power conflicts or play a pivotal role in transforming Russia’s political environment.

The future of Putin’s leadership in Russia is unknown, and Wagner’s measures against him might have far-reaching consequences for the country’s political environment. While the current scenario calls into doubt Putin’s leadership’s stability and durability, the conclusion will be determined by various variables, including opposing groups’ strategy, Putin’s ability to negotiate power conflicts, and other players’ responses. As events evolve, it is critical to keep a careful eye on the shifting dynamics within Russia to grasp the different pathways that the country’s politics may follow and the ramifications for regional and global stability. ***

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Amerika Serikat Hadapi Covid-19

24 Wednesday Jun 2020

Posted by Setiawan in Global Politics

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Amerika Serikat, china, covid-19, virus corona

More than 100 days into the coronavirus pandemic, here’s where things stand in the United States: 2.3 million people have been infected, and some 120,000 people — more than in any other country — have died. Early epicenters like New York and New Jersey appear to have gotten their outbreaks under control, but several new hot spots have emerged, including in Florida, Texas and Arizona, where daily case counts are higher than ever.

Demikian kalimat dalam editorial New York Times 23 Juni 2020. Dilema antara kepentingan elit politik dengan kenyataan bahwa virus corona ini sulit dikendalikan menjadi bagian tak terpisahkan bagaimana korban di Amerika Serikat menduduki ranking 1.

Idealnya sebuah negara adidaya seperti Amerika Serikat “mudah” menghadapi ancaman pandemi ini. Alasannya antara lain, pemerintahan modern, teknologi yang canggih, infrastruktur kesehatan yang memadai ditambah lagi anggaran yang relatif besar.

Lalu mengapa jumlah penderita pandemi ini terus bertambah? Salah satu yang diduga penyebab bukan ketidakmampuan aparatur kesehatan atau kekurangan anggaran namun leadership yang lemah. Leadership saat ini dibayangi kepentingan pemilu 2020 daripada memfokuskan kepada penyehatan rakyatnya.

Ini menjadi pembelajaran bagi banyak negara bahwa jika leadership yang diberi amanat menjaga negara, menaga rakyat sibuk dengan kepentingan dirinya agar terpilih kembali maka yang jadi korban adalah rakyat kebanyakan. Pilihan kebijakan menjadi bias. Perdebatan kebijakan juga tidak lagi bisa berimbang karena kursi leadership itu yang diincar.

Bandingkan dengan negara lain seperti China dan Rusia misalnya. Ketika China harus menghadapi virus corona pertama kali di Wuhan sejak Desember, leadership nya tegas dan fokus kepada penyelamatan. Lockdown sekitar dua atau tiga bulan dan nyaris selesai.

Crisis leadership, sebagian pihak menyebut menjadi penting jika tidak dikaitkan denga kursi pemilu.

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Abu Sayyaf dalam Aksi di Asia Tenggara

01 Sunday May 2016

Posted by Setiawan in Commentary, Global Politics

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Abu Sayyaf, asia tenggara, politik

Sejak terjadi penyenderaan terhadap warga Indonesia khususnya 10 orang yang kemudian bertambah menjadi 14 orang, maka lanskap politik kawasan di Asia Tenggara telah berubah. Kelompok Abu Sayyaf yang berbasis di Filipina Selatan menjadi salah satu aktor non negara yang memainkan peran lebih besar di kawasan ini. Tidak hanya karena drama penculikan – yang berarti menguasai jalur laut penting – tetapi taktik penyanderaan yang menimbulkan tanda tanya.

Hari Minggu (1 Mei 2016) Abu Sayyaf dilaporkan membebaskan 10 sandera WNI. Jadi tinggal empat yang masih menjadi sandera.

Seorang sandera Kanada baru saja dieksekusi karena tidak ditebus. Tindakan ini menimbulkan keguncangan terhadap berbagai negara termasuk Indonesia. Dengan segala perhitungannya Indonesia masih menahan diri tidak melakukan aksi sendiri terutama sesudah empat orang WNI disandera oleh faksi yang berbeda di tubuh Abu Sayyaf.

Tentu pertanyaan besarnya adalah mengapa mereka menyandera sesama Muslim seperti dari Indonesia? Dalam konteks apa kebijakan mereka berubah ? Apa dampaknya terhadap kawasan Asia Tenggara terutama dari segi keamanan.

Ada dugaan bahwa kampanye negara Islam Suriah dan Irak yang dikenal dengan nama ISIS mengubah perilaku kelompok yang menginginkan negara Islam di Filipina Selatan. Tanda-tanda pengaruh ideologi ISIS terhadap Abu Sayyaf tampak dari dukungan kelompok ini terhadap ISIS. Ideologi ISIS tidak membedakan antara Muslim dan non Muslim. Sejauh ini ISIS hanya membedakan antara yang mendukung Khilafahnya dan yang tidak.
Mereka yang tidak mendukungnya dianggap musuh dan akan diperangi.

Prinsip ini terlihat misalnya dari pembunuhan terhadap umat Islam di Iraq dan Suriah. Mereka tidak mengenal istilah netral atau diam. Ketika tidak mendukung ideologi ISIS maka mereka akan diperangi.

Jika dikaitkan dengan penyanderaan Muslim Indonesia maka ideologi ISIS ini menjadi pembenaran. Dengan permintaan tebusan milyaran rupiah maka sandera dijadikan instrumen menggalang dana.

Sikap ini terjadi karena ISIS dianggap juga membenarkan langkah penyanderaan untuk mengumpulkan dana. Ketika ISIS menaklukan Irak utara, kilang minyak tetap berproduksi dan dijadikan pemasukan untuk memperbesar wilayah dan pengaruhnya.

Analisis bahwa ISIS bisa mengubah perilaku Abu Sayyaf akan memberikan dampak luas tidak hanya pada satu dua negara tetapi terhadap kawasan Asia Tenggara. Simpatisan ISIS di berbagai negara di Asia Tenggara mungkin terinspirasi langkah kelompok Abu Sayyaf.

Wajah Asia Tenggara setidaknya beberapa tahun ini tidak akan sama dengan sebelumnya. Kelompok Abu Sayyaf telah mengubah taktiknya untuk melakukan penyanderaan terhadap warga negara lain di luar Filipina. Jalur ekonomi sudah tersandera juga di sebagian wilayah Asia Tenggara, sementara keamanan maritim juga terancam. Ini merupakan tantangan negara kawasan untuk mengelola wilayah maritim lebih baik lagi. Setidaknya rasa aman harus dibangun kembali untuk keperluan ekonomi. ***

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