• Home
  • About
  • International Relations
    • Journal Articles
    • Books
  • Journalism
    • Karya Jurnalistik
  • Commentary
  • Lecture
    • Politik Luar Negeri Indonesia
    • Pengantar Hubungan Internasional
    • Bahasa Inggris Diplomasi
  • Academic Profile

Jurnal Asep Setiawan

Jurnal Asep Setiawan

Tag Archives: Russia

The Repercussions of Wagner’s Actions Against Putin in Russia

30 Friday Jun 2023

Posted by Setiawan in Global Politics, Hubungan Internasional

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Russia, Vladimir Putin, Wagner

Wagner Group, a Russian private military corporation, has received much attention recently because of its involvement in many wars and possible ties to the Russian government. The Wagner Group’s suspected participation in measures against Russian President Vladimir Putin is one of the most fascinating parts of its activity. The ramifications of Wagner’s actions against Putin in Russia will be examined in this article, with an emphasis on the likely motives for such acts, the influence on Russia’s internal and international dynamics, and the more significant implications for the country’s political environment.

Understanding Wagner’s objectives against Putin is difficult since the nature of the group and its connection with the Russian government is mysterious. However, various ideas about their activities have evolved. Wagner’s actions against Putin might result from internal power struggles within the Russian elite. Putin’s inner circle generally includes powerful players with competing agendas. Wagner’s activities might be motivated by groups aiming to undercut Putin’s authority while consolidating their own.

Another potential cause is a desire for greater political power. If Wagner is linked to elements within the Russian government, their efforts against Putin might be an attempt to change political dynamics and assert control over decision-making. They may be attempting to convey to Putin that they have the potential and inclination to oppose his authority, therefore influencing policy results in their favor by attacking him.

Wagner’s actions against Putin have far-reaching ramifications for Russia’s domestic politics. For starters, they may worsen existing schisms within Russia’s political elite. If Wagner’s actions are motivated by internal power struggles, the administration may face further instability and infighting. This might erode Putin’s grip on the country and open the door for opposing forces to exploit the situation.

Wagner’s actions may further create widespread resentment and anti-government sentiment. If the organization successfully operates against Putin, it may damage the public’s impression of his authority and call into doubt the government’s capacity to preserve order. This might fuel social discontent and political division, further destabilizing the country.

Wagner’s attempts against Putin have far-reaching repercussions for Russia’s foreign affairs, far beyond the domestic sector. If the Wagner Group’s actions are tied to forces within the Russian government, it might indicate a power struggle that could influence Russia’s foreign policy decisions. The ambiguity surrounding Putin’s power and the possible influence of other factions may lead to a more unpredictable and forceful foreign policy, as several factions compete for dominance and seek to shape Russia’s external activities to their advantage.

Furthermore, Wagner’s actions against Putin may impact Russia’s ties with other countries. If conflicting factions acquire power, Russia’s alliances and relationships may evolve as different parties prioritize their interests. This might raise concerns and tensions with traditional allies, as well as have an influence on existing wars or talks in which Russia plays a prominent role.

Wagner Group’s actions against Putin have more significant consequences for Russia’s political environment. They show the complexities of power relations in the country and the possible fragility of Putin’s reign. If different groups are working to undermine Putin’s authority, it calls into doubt the stability and duration of his rule. The rise of alternative power centers among Russia’s elite might result in a more fragmented political environment, with many groups competing for dominance and influence.

Furthermore, the Wagner Group’s actions and the ramifications for Russia’s domestic and international dynamics may have long-term effects on the country’s political system. It may trigger a rethinking of the centralized style of government and talks about the need for reforms to address power imbalances and reduce the possibility of internal power struggles. Such conversations can alter the future trajectory of Russian politics and pave the road for a more inclusive and stable political system.

As Wagner’s actions against Putin develop, various possible scenarios might determine Putin’s influence in Russia in the future. Given the minimal information known regarding Wagner Group and its genuine aims, the current scenario is highly speculative. On the other hand, analyzing the future results might give insights into the potential ways in which Russian politics may evolve.

In this scenario, Putin effectively neutralizes Wagner’s initiatives and consolidates his hold on the Russian political environment. To regain his control, he may use a combination of political maneuvering, elite purges, and boosting support from loyal factions. Putin has proved to be a brilliant tactician in negotiating complicated power relations, and he may be able to utilize the situation to concentrate power further skillfully. This might mean that Putin’s control will continue indefinitely, with Putin keeping a prominent role in Russian politics.

On the other hand, Wagner’s initiatives might exacerbate power rivalries within Russia’s elite, leading to increased fragmentation and instability. Rival groups may step up their efforts to undermine Putin’s authority and seize power, encouraged by their capacity to criticize him. This situation might lead to more political infighting, destabilization, and the possibility of regime upheaval. Depending on the dominant forces within the power battles, the outcome might vary from a weaker Putin administration to a total reconstruction of the political system, perhaps leading to a more democratic or authoritarian state.

The Wagner Group’s activities might potentially spark a controlled transition of power in Russia. Recognizing the difficulties, he confronts; Putin may opt to stage a managed transfer of power to a successor. This situation would need meticulous planning and talks among important players to achieve a seamless transition and avoid widespread instability. The successor might be a loyal friend or a centrist candidate capable of upholding the regime’s essential values while satisfying conflicting groups. A shift like this might allow Russia to reform its political system and solve some of the underlying power inequalities.

Wagner’s actions against Putin may draw notice and interference from other forces. Foreign powers may seek to use domestic power conflicts to further their own agendas, depending on their interests. This might include economic pressure, diplomatic maneuvering, or backing for opposing factions. External action may either worsen existing power conflicts or play a pivotal role in transforming Russia’s political environment.

The future of Putin’s leadership in Russia is unknown, and Wagner’s measures against him might have far-reaching consequences for the country’s political environment. While the current scenario calls into doubt Putin’s leadership’s stability and durability, the conclusion will be determined by various variables, including opposing groups’ strategy, Putin’s ability to negotiate power conflicts, and other players’ responses. As events evolve, it is critical to keep a careful eye on the shifting dynamics within Russia to grasp the different pathways that the country’s politics may follow and the ramifications for regional and global stability. ***

Share this:

  • Click to share on X (Opens in new window) X
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Facebook
  • Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window) WhatsApp
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) LinkedIn
  • Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window) Email
  • Click to print (Opens in new window) Print
Like Loading...

Indonesia’s Active Role in Searching Peace Solution on Russia-Ukraine War

12 Thursday Jan 2023

Posted by Setiawan in International Relations, politik luar negeri indonesia

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Foreign Policy, indonesia, Russia, Ukraine

Indonesia’s role in the Ukraine-Russia war has been significant in trying to bring peace to the conflict. President Jokowi of Indonesia has visited both countries in a peace mission to help resolve the war and restore the global food supply chain.

The Indonesian government has expressed concerns about the development of the military conflict in Ukraine and its potential threat to regional peace. As the chair of the Group of 20 nations, Indonesia has been urging Russia and Ukraine to rekindle peace talks and seeking ways to free up the global food supply chain.

Although Indonesia has condemned the war and expressed sympathy to Ukrainians, President Jokowi declined a request for arms from Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Indonesia has not joined the chorus of nations, particularly western countries, in condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has displaced 11 million people. Instead, Indonesia has taken a neutral stance and sought to facilitate peace as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine.

The country’s G20 presidency provides an opportunity for Indonesia to facilitate peace, rather than view the Russia-Ukraine war as a threat to its G20 presidency plans.

In short, Indonesia’s role in the Ukraine-Russia war has been one of a neutral mediator seeking to facilitate peace. President Jokowi’s visit to both countries as part of a peace mission shows Indonesia’s commitment to resolving the war and restoring the global food supply chain. As the chair of the G20 nations, Indonesia has also been urging Russia and Ukraine to rekindle peace talks and has sought to facilitate peace as a mediator between both countries.

Share this:

  • Click to share on X (Opens in new window) X
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Facebook
  • Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window) WhatsApp
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) LinkedIn
  • Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window) Email
  • Click to print (Opens in new window) Print
Like Loading...

Random scenarios for Ukraine War

30 Wednesday Mar 2022

Posted by Setiawan in International Relations

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Russia, Ukraine

What is look like the outcome of the war in Ukraine? Here are some scenarios based on ongoing events.

Firstly, Ukraine will be occupied by Russia this year

Secondly, Ukraine become puppet government ruled by Russian

Thirdly, a long war without a clear winner due to Western proxy intervention like in Syria

Fourthly, Ukraine sign a peace agreement with Russia with unfair conditions for Ukraine

Finally, Ukraine become a winner with a heavy loss

Detail of these scenarios will be presented in short time

Share this:

  • Click to share on X (Opens in new window) X
  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) Facebook
  • Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window) WhatsApp
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window) LinkedIn
  • Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window) Email
  • Click to print (Opens in new window) Print
Like Loading...

Recent Posts

  • Bencana Alam di Sumatera: Pemicu dan Solusi Berkelanjutan
  • Statecraft 3.0: AI dan Masa Depan Diplomasi
  • Perang Dagang Amerika-China 2025: Analisis Implikasi terhadap Ekonomi Asia Tenggara
  • Strategi Palestina Pasca Pengakuan Internasional
  • Perjuangan Palestina: Dari Pengakuan ke Kedaulatan Efektif

Archives

Categories

My Tweets

Pages

  • About
  • Academic Profile
  • Bahasa Inggris Diplomasi
  • Karya Jurnalistik
  • My Books
  • Pengantar Hubungan Internasional
  • Politik Luar Negeri Indonesia

Create a website or blog at WordPress.com

  • Subscribe Subscribed
    • Jurnal Asep Setiawan
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • Jurnal Asep Setiawan
    • Subscribe Subscribed
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Report this content
    • View site in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar
%d